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Population

Last Modified 27/07/2021 10:57:56 Share this page

Population Estimates

National population estimates for 2020 cover the period up to 30 June 2020, with data reflecting some of the impacts of the early part of the Covid-19 pandemic on the population. At a national level, the Office for National Statistics reports that data can be broken into two parts: the first eight months where patterns reflected recent trends; and the four months from March, when the first wave of the pandemic hit, the number of deaths increased and internal migration reduced.

The resident population of Blackpool is approximately 138,380. Mid 2020 population estimates (Figure 1) illustrate that older people (65 years plus) account for a greater proportion of Blackpool's resident population than is observed at national level.

Figure 1: 2020 Population - Males and Females, All ages, 0-14 years and 65 and over
 Total population Males  Females  Age 0-14 years  Age 65 and over  
   No. No.  % No.  No.  No. 
 England 56,550,138 27,982,818 49.5%  28,567,320 50.5%  10,214,484 18.1%  10,464,019 18.5% 
 Blackpool  138,381 68,740 49.7%   69,641 50.3%   24,449 17.7%   28,433 20.5% 
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2020

Figure 2 gives Blackpool population estimates by males and females and by 5 year age group.  People aged 50-59 make up the largest age group with 15.1% of the population. Just over a fifth (22.9%) of Blackpool's population is aged under 20 and less than 10% are aged over 75. Overall, there are significantly more people aged over 45 in Blackpool (48%) than is seen nationally (44%)

Figure 2: 2018 mid-year population estimates by males, females and five year age group - Blackpool
 MalesFemalesPersons 
All Ages 68,740 69,641 138,381  
0-4 4,074 3,921 7,995 5.8%
5-9 4,295 4,215 8,510 6.1%
10-14 4,141 3,803 7,944 5.6%
15-19 3,830 3,559 7,389 5.3%
20-24 3,850 3,793 7,643 5.5%
25-29 4,171 4,306 8,477 6.1%
30-34 4,375 4,101 8,476 6.1%
35-39 3,760 3,862 7,622 5.5%
40-44 3,649 3,659 7,308 5.3%
45-49 4,340 4,366 8,706 6.3%
50-54 5,207 5,233 10,440 7.6%
55-59 5,348 5,151 10,499 7.6%
60-64 4,547 4,392 8,939 6.5%
65-69 3,723 3,682 7,405 5.4%
70-74 3,790 3,979 7,769 5.6%
75-79 2,598 2,986 5,584 4.0%
80-84 1,753 2,315 4,068 2.9%
85-89 909 1,405 2,314 1.7%
90+ 380 913 1,293 0.9%
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2020
Population Pyramid

Blackpool's population pyramid (Figure 3) displays a higher proportion than England of people over 45 years of age, and a much lower proportion in ages younger than 45. The age bands 20-44, in particular, have a considerably lower proportion than England. Blackpool reflects England's higher proportion of females in the older age bands than males.

Figure 3: Population Pyramid (Mid 2020 Estimated Resident Population) - Blackpool

2020 Pop Pyramid
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2020

Population Projections

Projections of the population of Blackpool indicate that the number of residents over 65 will show a considerable increase within the next 25 years, far in excess of the levels of increase shown in all other age bands (Figure 4). The over 65 population is projected to rise by 24% from 28,400 in 2018 to almost 36,000 in 2039 and will then make up over a quarter (26%) of Blackpool's total population.

The total population of Blackpool is projected to increase slightly in the long term, going from 139,300 in 2018 to 141,500 by 2044 (ONS mid-2018 based population estimates). The 45-64 year old population shows the greatest decrease over time.

Figure 4: 2018-based Subnational Population Projections for Blackpool

2020 pop projection age

Source:  ONS 2018-based subnational population projections

There are four factors that affect population change: birth rate, death rate, immigration and emigration. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is the net change in population due to natural change. Immigration and emigration figures reflect those entering or leaving Blackpool from or to other areas of England, the UK or internationally. Figure 5 displays projected changes in Blackpool's population from natural change, immigration and emigration. The main contributory factor in the initial fall in population is that natural change is relatively static with more deaths than births in the town, with the decrease in population partly offset by a small increase in immigration. The levelling off in the late 2020's followed by a projected population rise is primarily due to immigration increasing rather than increase in natural change. ONS data suggests that over 90% of immigration comes from other areas of England and the rest of the UK, with this proportion expected to increase to 95% by the early 2030s.

It should be noted that the population projections are based upon 2018 estimates by the Office of National Statistics, and do not anticipate effects of Brexit or Covid-19 on the population. Both these factors may impact on natural change and immigration over the short, and potentially longer term. 

Figure 5: Projected Components of Population Change - Blackpool

2020 Pop Projection

 
Source: ONS 2018-based subnational population projections

Population Turnover

Transience has been an identified issue in Blackpool for a long time. A review has been undertaken to identify whether there is a reliable quantitative source of information that can help us understand this issue.

Population turnover statistics identify that some areas in Blackpool have extremely high levels of population inflow and outflow. The Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) which contains South Beach has a population inflow rate of 193 per 1000 population, which is the 65th highest inflow rate of the 7,194 MSOAs in England1.

Further analysis of GP Register data suggests a small number of people move more than 3 times a year (less than 2%), and that the age group most likely to move at least once is young people aged 20-29.

Figure 6 summarises the inflows and outflows in Blackpool over the course of a single year.

Figure 6: Population inflows and outflows in Blackpool - Mid-year 2019 to 2020 Change

 
 2020 Pop Flow

Geo-demographic Segmentation

MOSAIC is a demographic profiling tool that is produced by Experian. MOSAIC categorises all households and postcodes into 'segments'. Each segment shares a set of statistically similar behaviours, interests or demographics. MOSAIC is especially useful for providing insight into the local population, service users and neighbourhoods and can be used to support sophisticated service development - right through from initial feasibility research into service design and marketing.

The most recent version of MOSAIC was released in 2020. Households are categorised by 15 broad MOSAIC 'groups'. These groups can be further broken down into 66 detailed MOSAIC 'types'. Each group or type has an associated name and a detailed statistical profile. It is these profiles that paint a rich picture of the segments and provide insight into the local population.

Clearly not every one of the country's postcodes/households matches exactly to just one of the 66 different Mosaic types. These descriptions are what sociologists describe as 'ideal types', pure examples to which individual cases approximate only with various degrees of exactness. They focus on the statistical bias of a type of neighbourhood, on the demographic categories which are more numerous there than elsewhere in the country and which give the neighbourhood its distinctive character. In addition, because the boundaries of postcodes and census output areas do not exactly match boundaries in housing type, it is inevitable that addresses close to boundaries may in certain cases not appear to have been allocated to the most suitable category. There are cases too, where the same types of neighbourhood will contain people of similar character and behaviour but living in very different types of accommodation according to where in the country they may live2.

The following are the total count and percentage of households within each high level mosaic group. A large majority of Blackpool households fall into 5 Groups; H, K, L, M and N representing 75% of all households in the town. Groups K and L, 'Modest Traditions' and 'Transient Renters', account for 42.9% of Blackpool households, compared to 11.9% across the UK as a whole.

Figure 7: Percentage of households in each Mosaic group - Blackpool2020 Blackpool Mosaic GroupsSource: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2020

The bar chart below shows how households in each area are categorised. Blackpool has a bias toward the K to O segments with higher percentages of households in these groups.

Figure 8: Percentage of households in Mosaic groups - comparison of Blackpool, the Fylde Coast and the UK

2020 Bpool UK Mosaic ComparisonSource: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2020

Each Blackpool postcode has been designated a Mosaic group that is most representative of the households it contains. This is visually represented in Figure 9.

Figure 9: Map of Mosaic Groups in Blackpool

MOSAIC groups 2017
Source: Experian, Mosaic Public Sector 2017

Mosaic further divides groups into 66 types to allow a more in-depth understanding of the geo-demographic makeup of the residents of Blackpool. Figure 10 displays the mosaic types in Blackpool and the number and proportion of Blackpool households in each.

Figure 10: Households by Mosaic Type in Blackpool

2020 Mosaic Types for Blackpool.

Source: Mosaic Public Sector 2020

Figure 11 displays the key attributes for the 5 biggest Mosaic Types in Blackpool which represent 47% of all households

Figure 11: Top 5 Mosaic Types in Blackpool

Type L50: Renting Rooms - Transient renters of low cost accommodation often within subdivided older properties
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  • Singles and homesharers
  • Short term private renters
  • Low rent accommodation
  • Often Victorian terraces
  • Most likely to get a lift to work
  • Low wage occupations

Type K46: Self Supporters - Hard working mature singles who own their budget houses and earn modest wages

""

  • Aged 45-65
  • Singles living alone
  • Income typically £20-25k
  • Own 2 or 3 bedroom small houses
  • Often terraces
  • Still working

Type M54: Economical Families - Younger families with children who own a budget home and are striving to cover all expenses
""

  • Married or cohabiting couples
  • Likely to have pre-school children
  • Outgoings high in proportion to income
  • Own low value homes
  • Both parents working
  • Unsecured personal loans

Type K47: Back with the Folks - Lower income owners whose adult children are still striving to gain independence meaning space is limited

""

  • Pre-retirement
  • Families with adult children
  • Individual incomes not high
  • Better off if children are contributing
  • Own 3 bed semis and terraces
  • Bills can become a struggle

Type H31: First-Rung Futures - Young owners settling into the affordable homes they have bought in established suburbs

""

  • Younger couples and singles
  • Own 2 or 3 bed semis and terraces
  • Affordable suburbs
  • Have lived there under 4 years
  • Buy and sell on eBay
  • Photo messaging on mobiles

[1] Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, Population Turnover 2009-2010

[2] Experian, 2020