Population

Blackpool Census 2021 facts and figures

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has published a local area webpage for Blackpool, drawn from the Census 2021 and other sources. Maps and local profiles about Blackpool's population, health and the economy can be found at https://www.ons.gov.uk/visualisations/areas/area/?code=E06000009. 

Population estimates

The England and Wales census has happened every 10 years since 1801, except in 1941. It gives detailed information about the characteristics of all people and households in England and Wales. It is a legal requirement for everyone to be counted in the census and to provide accurate information. The latest census took place 21 March 2021 and was conducted by the ONS. It achieved a response rate of 97% of the usual resident population. This high response rate enables the ONS to generate high quality population estimates. 

The first release of Census 2021 population data was in June 2022, with subsequent releases providing more information about national and local populations. This JSNA page will be updated as more detailed population data becomes available. 

According to Census 2021, the usual resident population of Blackpool is approximately 141,100. This is a decrease of 0.7% since the last census in 2011, whilst the overall population of England increased by 6.6% and the North West region increased by 5.2%. The population of neighbouring areas of Fylde (+7.4%) and Wyre (+3.9%) also increased over the same period.

Blackpool is the third most densely populated local authority in the North West, with 4,046 people per square kilometre (compared to 4,773 in Manchester, 4,347 in Liverpool, 491 in neighbouring Fylde, and 397 in Wyre).

Estimates indicate that older people (65 years plus) account for a greater proportion of Blackpool's resident population than is observed nationally (figure 1). Since the 2011 census there has been a 7.6% increase in the number of people aged 65 and over in Blackpool, compared to a national increase of 3.6%. The Blackpool population of people aged 15 to 64 years has decreased by 2.8%, compared to a 3.6% increase nationally; and the population of those under 15 years of age has decreased by 2.1% since 2011, compared to an increase of 5% nationally.

Figure 2 gives Blackpool population estimates by males and females and by five-year age group.  People aged 50-59 make up 15.2% of Blackpool's population (13.7% nationally). 21.7% of Blackpool's population is aged under 20 (23.1% nationally), and 9.7% are aged 75 and above (8.6% nationally). Overall, there are significantly more people aged over 45 in Blackpool (48.8%) than is seen nationally (44.2%).

There have been some significant changes to the age distribution of the estimated population since the last census in 2011. The 55-59 age group increased by 31% over the period, the 50-54 age group by 9%, and the 30-34 group by 22%; though 40-44 and 45-49 age groups decreased by 22% and 27% respectively. Increases are also seen in the 70-79 age groups, with decreases in all under 25 age groups except the 5-9-years.

Figure 2: Census 2021 population estimates by males, females and five-year age group - Blackpool (and 2011 change)

Population pyramid

Blackpool's population pyramid (figure 3) shows the differences across the age groups compared to England, with higher proportions of those aged 50 and over in Blackpool (males and females). There are lower proportions in ages 45 and younger. Blackpool reflects England's higher proportion of females in the older age bands than males.

Figure 3: population pyramid (Census 2021 estimated resident population) - Blackpool

Source: Office for National Statistics, Population and household estimates, England and Wales: Census 2021.

Household composition

The table below shows the household composition for Blackpool from the 2021 Census. Blackpool has more single-person housholds compared to Lancashire and England, reflecting the housing stock and population of the area. Almost a quarter (24.9%) of Blackpool's households have dependent children (Lancashire 27.1%, England 28.5%). Of these, 9% are lone parenet households (Lancashire 6.8%, England 6.9%). The interactive map provides further breakdowns. 

Note: The following sections are based on pre-Census 2021 population estimates, and will be revised upon further ONS Census 2021 releases.

Projections for Blackpool show the number of residents over-65 will increase considerably within the next 25 years, far in excess of the levels  shown in all other age bands (figure 5). The over-65 population is projected to rise by 24% from 28,400 in 2018 to almost 36,000 in 2039 and will then make up over a quarter (26%) of Blackpool's total population.

The total population is projected to increase slightly in the long term, going from 139,300 in 2018 to 141,500 by 2044 (ONS mid-2018 based population estimates). The 45-64-year-old population shows the greatest decrease over time.

Figure 5: 2018-based subnational population projections for Blackpool

Source:  ONS 2018-based subnational population projections

There are four factors that affect population change: birth rate, death rate, immigration and emigration. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is the net change in population due to natural change. Immigration and emigration figures reflect those entering or leaving Blackpool from or to other areas of England, the UK or internationally. Figure 6 displays projected changes in Blackpool's population from natural change, immigration and emigration. The main contributory factor in the initial fall in population is that natural change is relatively static with more deaths than births in the town, with the decrease in population partly offset by a small increase in immigration. The levelling off in the late 2020's followed by a projected population rise is primarily due to immigration increasing rather than increase in natural change. ONS data suggests that over 90% of immigration comes from other areas of England and the rest of the UK, with this proportion expected to increase to 95% by the early 2030s.

It should be noted that the population projections are based upon 2018 estimates by the Office for National Statistics, and do not anticipate effects of Brexit or Covid-19 on the population. Both these factors may impact on natural change and immigration over the short, and potentially longer term. 

Figure 6: projected components of population change - Blackpool

Source: ONS 2018-based subnational population projections

Population Turnover

Transience has been an identified issue in Blackpool for a long time. A review has been undertaken to identify whether there is a reliable quantitative source of information that can help us understand this issue.

Population turnover statistics identify that some areas in Blackpool have extremely high levels of population inflow and outflow. The middle layer super output area (MSOA) which contains South Beach has a population inflow rate of 193 per 1,000 population, which is the 65th highest inflow rate of the 7,194 MSOAs in England.¹

Further analysis of GP register data suggests a small number of people move more than three times a year (less than 2%), and that the age group most likely to move at least once is young people aged 20-29.

Figure 7 summarises the inflows and outflows in Blackpool over the course of a single year.

Figure 7: Population inflows and outflows in Blackpool - mid-year 2019 to 2020 change

Geo-demographic segmentation

MOSAIC is a demographic profiling tool that is produced by Experian. MOSAIC categorises all households and postcodes into 'segments'. Each segment shares a set of statistically similar behaviours, interests or demographics. MOSAIC is especially useful for providing insight into the local population, service users and neighbourhoods, and can be used to support sophisticated service development - right through from initial feasibility research into service design and marketing.

The most recent version of MOSAIC was released in 2020. Households are categorised by 15 broad MOSAIC 'groups'. These groups can be further broken down into 66 detailed MOSAIC 'types'. Each group or type has an associated name and a detailed statistical profile. It is these profiles that paint a rich picture of the segments and provide insight into the local population.

Clearly not every one of the country's postcodes/households matches exactly to just one of the 66 different Mosaic types. These descriptions are what sociologists describe as 'ideal types', pure examples to which individual cases approximate only with various degrees of exactness. They focus on the statistical bias of a type of neighbourhood, on the demographic categories which are more numerous there than elsewhere in the country and which give the neighbourhood its distinctive character. In addition, because the boundaries of postcodes and census output areas do not exactly match boundaries in housing type, it is inevitable that addresses close to boundaries may in certain cases not appear to have been allocated to the most suitable category. There are cases too, where the same types of neighbourhood will contain people of similar character and behaviour but living in very different types of accommodation according to where in the country they may live.²

The following are the total count and percentage of households within each high level mosaic group. A large majority of Blackpool households fall into five groups; H, K, L, M and N representing 75% of all households in the town. Groups K and L, 'Modest Traditions' and 'Transient Renters', account for 42.9% of Blackpool households, compared to 11.9% across the UK as a whole.

Figure 8: percentage of households in each Mosaic group - BlackpoolSource: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2020

The bar chart below shows how households in each area are categorised. Blackpool has a bias toward the K to O segments with higher percentages of households in these groups.

Figure 9: percentage of households in Mosaic groups - comparison of Blackpool, the Fylde Coast and the UK

Source: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2020

Each Blackpool postcode has been designated a Mosaic group that is most representative of the households it contains. This is visually represented in Figure 10.

Figure 10: map of Mosaic groups in BlackpoolSource: Experian, Mosaic Public Sector 2020

Mosaic further divides groups into 66 types to allow a more in-depth understanding of the geo-demographic makeup of the residents of Blackpool. Figure 11 displays the mosaic types in Blackpool and the number and proportion of Blackpool households in each.

Figure 11: households by Mosaic type in Blackpool

Source: Mosaic Public Sector 2020

Figure 12 displays the key attributes for the five biggest Mosaic types in Blackpool which represent 47% of all households

Figure 12: Top five Mosaic types in Blackpool

Type L50: Renting Rooms - transient renters of low cost accommodation often within subdivided older properties

• Singles and homesharers

• Short term private renters

• Low rent accommodation

• Often Victorian terraces

• Most likely to get a lift to work

• Low wage occupations

Type K46: Self Supporters - hard working mature singles who own their budget houses and earn modest wages

• Aged 45-65

• Singles living alone

• Income typically £20-25k

• Own 2 or 3 bedroom small houses

• Often terraces

• Still working

Type M54: Economical Families - younger families with children who own a budget home and are striving to cover all expenses

• Married or cohabiting couples

• Likely to have pre-school children

• Outgoings high in proportion to income

• Own low value homes

• Both parents working

• Unsecured personal loans

Type K47: Back with the Folks - lower income owners whose adult children are still striving to gain independence meaning space is limited

• Pre-retirement

• Families with adult children

• Individual incomes not high

• Better off if children are contributing

• Own 3 bed semis and terraces

• Bills can become a struggle

Type H31: First-Rung Futures - young owners settling into the affordable homes they have bought in established suburbs

• Younger couples and singles

• Own 2 or 3 bed semis and terraces

• Affordable suburbs

• Have lived there under 4 years

• Buy and sell on eBay

• Photo messaging on mobiles

[1] Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, Population Turnover 2009-2010

[2] Experian, 2020