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Blackpool Coronavirus Weekly Summary

Last Modified 11/11/2021 14:35:38 Share this page

Deaths

The trend in deaths of Blackpool residents is shown in the chart below. The red bars show the deaths identified as Covid-19 on death certificates. The number of deaths quickly came to a peak in mid-April 2020 with a slower fall over summer before increasing again from mid-October and falling through March 2021. Deaths from Covid-19 have again decreased and we haven’t seen a Covid-19 related death for a number of weeks. The black line allows a comparison of the total number of deaths currently being recorded each week with the average number we have seen in the last five years. This gap between the current number of deaths and what we would expect based on the pattern from previous years is often described as the number of ‘excess deaths’.

Deaths that occured up to 29 October 2021 but were registered up to 6 November 2021, Blackpool

Mortality trend 6-11
 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) - Death registrations and occurences by local authority
    • In the period up to 6 November 2021, 515 residents of Blackpool have COVID-19 recorded on their death certificate.

Comparing the numbers of deaths in different areas is more meaningful if we take account of their population sizes and their age and sex distributions. This is particularly important for COVID-19, as we know that it disproportionately impacts older people and to some extent males. The chart below takes these factors into account. All regions recorded increases in mortality rates involving COVID-19 between March and April, followed by decreases in summer 2020. Further spikes occurred over the winter and now mortality from COVID-19 is decreasing across all areas. While Blackpool’s death rate is higher than the England rate, it is similar to the average death rate across the North West as a whole.

Directly standardised mortality rates for deaths due to coronavirus* for males and females: March 2020 – April 2021

Mortality DSR Apr 21-M&F
Source: Deaths due to COVID-19 by local area and deprivation - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

*The number of deaths "due to" the coronavirus (COVID-19) include only where COVID-19 was the underlying (main) cause of death.

Cases

Testing for COVID-19 allows the diagnosis of an individual, but also allows us to track the progress of the epidemic. Testing has been undertaken in two ‘pillars’:

    • Pillar 1: swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers
    • Pillar 2: swab testing for the wider population, as set out in government guidance

Pillar 1 testing has been undertaken since very early in the epidemic, whereas pillar 2 testing was introduced gradually from mid-April. The chart below tracks pillar 1 and pillar 2 confirmed cases, for Blackpool residents over time.  

Blackpool - COVID-19 Daily lab-confirmed cases to 9 November 2021

Cases trend 10-11
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
    • To date (10 November 2021) there have been 23,732 confirmed cases in Blackpool since the outbreak began.
    • This is roughly equal to 170 people out of every 1,000 that live in the town.
    • In the 7 days to the 5 November, 468 residents tested positive for COVID-19, which represents a weekly rate of 338.2 per 100,000 residents.
    • In the week ending 5 November, 7.2% of tests taken by residents in Blackpool were positive. 

Blackpool data

Each week Public Health England publishes the number of positive cases of COVID-19 recorded in each middle super output areas (MSOAs). Where the number of cases are below 3, these have been suppressed to maintain confidentiality.

View the latest week's count for your MSOA (enter your postcode)

Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population, tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper-tier local authority,  24 - 31 October 2021

Map 24-31 Oct
Source: Public Health England - National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot

COVID-19 can present as a mild illness in many people and can be totally asymptomatic in others. This means that many people who have COVID-19 will not be tested for the virus, and therefore testing cannot give us a complete picture of what is happening. The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford are conducting the Coronavirus Infection Survey Pilot to assess the incidence (the number of new cases per week) and the prevalence (the number of people who have the virus at any one time) of COVID-19, as well as to gain further insight into what factors influence catching the virus.

    • Prevalence: An estimated 1,103,300 people (95% credible interval: 1,042,700 to 1,163,400) within the community population in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 30 October 2021, equating to around 1 in 50 individuals.

In England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) has increased more slowly over a two-week period but the trend was uncertain in the week ending 30 October 2021. Rates increased in the North East and Yorkshire and The Humber and decreased in the North West and East Midlands. There are also early signs of a decrease in the South East.

As with the regional picture, the number of people testing positive continued to fluctuate across age groups. Rates increased for those in school Year 12 to age 24 and for those aged 50-69 years. Rates have decreased for school Year 7 to Year 11 in the most recent weeks, however, rates remain high. It is too early to determine the impact of the half-term holiday on the number of infections among school children. Rates remained highest for those in school years 7 to 11 at 7.5%

The chart below presents estimates of infection rates over time. The estimates shows the number of infections has been increasing in recent weeks.

Official estimates of the percentage of the population in England testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) on nose and throat swabs from 7 August 2020

Case estimate 30 Oct
Source: ONS - COVID-19 Infection Survey
Notes:
1.These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which is meant private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
2.It is important to note that the results for the most recent period are provisional, as the CIS is still receiving swab test results. This may result in further revisions to the figure.
 

R Value

The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person.

An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of new infections is stable. If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection. If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is generally seen to be growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

R is not the only important measure of the epidemic. R indicates whether the epidemic is getting bigger or smaller but not how large it is. The number of people currently infected with coronavirus (COVID-19) – and so able to pass it on – is very important. 

The R value cannot be measured or calculated directly but must be inferred from the trend observed in epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. 

The estimated R values for areas with smaller populations are much less certain, as there is less information available to produce a model. A number of models have been created to estimate an R value for the North West of England. These models currently suggest the R value for the North West is similar to the value for England as a whole. 

Latest R number range for England

Range for England                  0.9 - 1.1 

 

 

 

Range for the North West    0.9 - 1.1

 

 

Last updated on Friday 5 November 2021

Growth Rate

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections are changing day by day and it is an approximation of the change in number infections each day. If the growth rate is greater than zero (+ positive), then the disease will grow. If the growth rate is less than zero (- negative) then the disease will shrink.

The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. A growth rate of +5% will grow faster than one with a growth rate of +1%. Likewise, a disease with a growth rate of -4% will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of -1%.

Latest growth rates (percentage per day)

Range for England                        -1% to +2%            

 

 

Range for the North West          -2% to +2% 

 

 

Last updated on Friday  5 November 2021

For further information, please see The R number and growth rate in the UK

 

Vaccination coverage

The NHS started administering vaccinations for COVID-19 in England on 8 December 2020 and it is being offered in some hospitals and pharmacies, at local centres run by GPs and at larger vaccination centres.

It's currently being given to:

    • People aged 12 and over
    • People aged 18 and over can get a 1st and 2nd dose of a vaccine
    • Most children and young people aged 12 to 17 are currently only being offered a 1st dose

Booster vaccine doses will be available for people most at risk from COVID-19 who have had a 2nd dose of a vaccine at least 6 months ago. This includes:

    • people aged 50 and over
    • people who live and work in care homes
    • frontline health and social care workers
    • people aged 16 and over with a health condition that puts them at high risk of getting seriously ill from COVID-19
    • people aged 16 and over who are a main carer for someone at high risk
    • people aged 16 and over who live with someone who is more likely to get infections

Blackpool vaccination coverage: cumulative proportion of doses administered to 10 November 2021

Vaccination 10-11
Source: PHE Situational Awareness Explorer 
    • As at 10 November 2021, 104,453 people in Blackpool had at least one dose of the vaccine.
    • 78.1% of Blackpool residents aged 12+ have now received at least one dose of vaccine (71.3% have received two doses).
    • 96.3% of eligible residents of older adult care homes had both vaccination doses by 31 October 2021.
    • 94.6% of staff of older adult care homes are reported to be vaccinated with a 2nd dose

Covid-19 Vaccine data - local authority and MSOA count

Counts of vaccinations by local authority and MSOA are available from NHS England-Statistics » COVID-19 Vaccinations (england.nhs.uk)