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Blackpool Coronavirus Weekly Summary

Last Modified 10/06/2021 11:26:10 Share this page

Deaths

The trend in deaths of Blackpool residents is shown in the chart below.  The yellow bars show the deaths identified as Covid-19 on death certificates.  The number of deaths quickly came to a peak in mid-April 2020 with a slower fall over summer before increasing again from mid-October. Deaths from Covid-19 have again decreased and we haven’t seen a Covid-19 related death for a number of weeks. The black line allows a comparison of the total number of deaths currently being recorded each week with the average number we have seen in the last five years.  This gap between the current number of deaths and what we would expect based on the pattern from previous years is often described as the number of ‘excess deaths’.

Deaths that occured up to 28 May 2021 but were registered up to 5 June 2021, Blackpool

Mortality trend 5-6
 Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) - Death registrations and occurences by local authority
    • In the period up to 5 June, 472 residents of Blackpool have COVID-19 recorded on their death certificate.

Comparing the numbers of deaths in different areas is more meaningful if we take account of their population sizes and their age and sex distributions.  This is particularly important for COVID-19, as we know that it disproportionately impacts older people and to some extent males.  The chart below takes these factors into account. All regions recorded increases in mortality rates involving COVID-19 between March and April, followed by decreases in summer 2020. Further spikes occurred over the winter and now mortality from COVID-19 is decreasing across all areas. While Blackpool’s death rate is higher than the England rate, it is similar to the average death rate across the North West as a whole.

Directly standardised mortality rates for deaths due to coronavirus*: March 2020 – April 2021

Mortality DSR Apr 21
Source: Deaths due to COVID-19 by local area and deprivation - Office for National Statistics (ons.gov.uk)

*The number of deaths "due to" the coronavirus (COVID-19) include only where COVID-19 was the underlying (main) cause of death.

Cases

Testing for COVID-19 allows the diagnosis of an individual, but also allows us to track the progress of the epidemic.  Testing has been undertaken in two ‘pillars’:

    • Pillar 1: swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers
    • Pillar 2: swab testing for the wider population, as set out in government guidance

Pillar 1 testing has been undertaken since very early in the epidemic, whereas pillar 2 testing was introduced gradually from mid-April.  The chart below tracks pillar 1 and pillar 2 confirmed cases, for Blackpool residents over time.  

Blackpool - COVID-19 Daily lab-confirmed cases to 7 June 2021

Cases trend 7-6
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
 
  1. To date (7 June 2021) there have been 9,589 confirmed cases in Blackpool since the outbreak began.
  2. This is roughly equal to 69 people out of every 1,000 that live in the town.
  3. In the 7 days to the 3 June, 129 residents tested positive for COVID-19, which represents a weekly rate of 92.5 per 100,000 residents.
  4. In the week ending 3 June, 2.3% of tests taken by residents in Blackpool were positive. 

Blackpool data

Each week Public Health England publishes the number of positive cases of COVID-19 recorded in each middle super output areas (MSOAs). Where the number of cases are below 3, these have been suppressed to maintain confidentiality.

View the latest week's count for your MSOA (enter your postcode)

Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population, tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper-tier local authority,  25 - 31 May 2021

Map 25-31 May

 
Source: Public Health England - National flu and COVID-19 surveillance reports

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot

COVID-19 can present as a mild illness in many people and can be totally asymptomatic in others.  This means that many people who have COVID-19 will not be tested for the virus, and therefore testing cannot give us a complete picture of what is happening.  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford are conducting the Coronavirus Infection Survey Pilot to assess the incidence (the number of new cases per week) and the prevalence (the number of people who have the virus at any one time) of COVID-19, as well as to gain further insight into what factors influence catching the virus.

    • Prevalence: An estimated 85,600 people (95% credible interval: 71,900 to 100,900) within the community population in England had COVID-19 in the week ending 29 May 2021, equating to around 1 in 640 individuals.

While infection rates remain low across the UK compared with earlier months in the year, in England, the percentage of people testing positive for coronavirus (COVID-19) has increased in the week ending 29 May 2021. We have seen an increase in cases that are not the Alpha (Kent) variant; these are likely to be the B.1.617.2 Delta variant, first identified in India.

The highest percentage of people testing positive was observed in the North West, although rates were low in all regions. The percentage of people testing positive has increased in the North West, East Midlands and the South West. In the North West, there were a large number of positive results captured by the survey on the latest day of data collection, which may be magnifying the recent increase. This means that there is greater uncertainty than usual in the exact size of the increase. There were also signs of a possible increase in the West Midlands and London.

There has been an increase in people testing positive in those aged 35 years and over and in school Years 7 to 11. Because of lower positivity rates, caution should be taken in over-interpreting small movements in the latest trends.

The chart below present estimates of infection rates over time. The estimate shows the number of infections has decreased in recent weeks.

Official estimates of the percentage of the population in England testing positive for the coronavirus (COVID-19) on nose and throat swabs from 3 May 2020

Case estimate 29 May
Source: ONS - COVID-19 Infection Survey
Notes:
1.These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which is meant private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
2.It is important to note that the results for the most recent period are provisional, as the CIS is still receiving swab test results. This may result in further revisions to the figure.
 

R Value

The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person.

An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of new infections is stable. If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection. If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is generally seen to be growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

R is not the only important measure of the epidemic. R indicates whether the epidemic is getting bigger or smaller but not how large it is. The number of people currently infected with coronavirus (COVID-19) – and so able to pass it on – is very important. 

The R value cannot be measured or calculated directly but must be inferred from the trend observed in epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. 

The estimated R values for areas with smaller populations are much less certain, as there is less information available to produce a model.  A number of models have been created to estimate an R value for the North West of England.  These models currently suggest the R value for the North West is similar to the value for England as a whole. 

Latest R number range for England -

Range for England                  1.0 - 1.2 

 

 

 

Range for the North West    1.0 - 1.3

 

 

Last updated on Friday 4 June 2021

Growth Rate

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections are changing day by day and it is an approximation of the change in number infections each day. If the growth rate is greater than zero (+ positive), then the disease will grow. If the growth rate is less than zero (- negative) then the disease will shrink.

The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. A growth rate of +5% will grow faster than one with a growth rate of +1%. Likewise, a disease with a growth rate of -4% will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of -1%.

Latest growth rates (percentage per day)

Range for England                        0% to +3%            

 

 

Range for the North West        +2% to +5% 

 

 

Last updated on Friday 4 June 2021

For further information, please see The R number and growth rate in the UK

 

Vaccination coverage

The NHS started administering vaccinations for COVID-19 in England on 8 December 2020 and is offering the COVID-19 vaccine to people most at risk.

In England, the COVID-19 vaccine is being offered in some hospitals and pharmacies, at local centres run by GPs and at larger vaccination centres.

It's currently being given to:

    • people aged 25 and over
    • people at high risk from COVID-19 (clinically extremely vulnerable)
    • people who live or work in care homes
    • health and social care workers
    • people with a condition that puts them at higher risk (clinically vulnerable)
    • people with a learning disability
    • people who are a main carer for someone at high risk from COVID-19

The order in which people have been offered the vaccine is based on advice from the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI). 

Blackpool vaccination coverage: cumulative proportion of doses administered to 8 June 2021

Vaccination 9-6
Source: PHE Situational Awareness Explorer 
  1. As at 8 June 2021, 89,685 people in Blackpool had at least one dose of the vaccine.
  2. Over half (58%) of Blackpool residents have now received at least one dose of vaccine (46% have received two doses).
  3. 70,246 (approx. 87%) people aged over 40 have received at least one dose.
  4. 95.9% of eligible residents of older adult care homes had at least one dose by 30 May.
  5. 93.7% of staff of older adult care homes are reported to be vaccinated with at least one dose.

Covid-19 Vaccine data - local authority and MSOA count

Counts of vaccinations by local authority and MSOA are available from NHS England-Statistics » COVID-19 Vaccinations (england.nhs.uk)