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Blackpool Coronavirus Weekly Summary

Last Modified 27/10/2020 16:57:55 Share this page

Deaths

The trend in deaths of Blackpool residents is shown in the chart below.  The orange bars show the deaths identified as COVID-19 on death certificates.  The number of deaths quickly came to a peak in mid-April with a slower fall since.  The black line allows a comparison of the total number of deaths currently being recorded each week with the average number we have seen in the last five years.  This gap between the current number of deaths and what we would expect based on the pattern from previous years is often described as the number of ‘excess deaths’.

Deaths that occured up to 16 October 2020 but were registered up to 24 October 2020, Blackpool

Deaths trend to 24 Oct
Source: Office for National Statistics (ONS) - Death registrations and occurences by local authority
 
    • In the period up to 24 October, 157 residents of Blackpool have COVID-19 recorded on their death certificate.

Comparing the numbers of deaths in different areas is more meaningful if we take account of their population sizes and their age and sex distributions.  This is particularly important for COVID-19, as we know that it disproportionately impacts older people and to some extent males.  The chart below takes these factors into account. All regions recorded increases in mortality rates involving COVID-19 between March and April, followed by decreases in May, June and July. Blackpool currently has similar mortality rates to the North West average.

Mortality rates for deaths since the start of the pandemic of people who had a positive test result for COVID-19 and died within 28 days, as at 21October 2020

Mortality rates to 21 October
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk

Cases

Testing for COVID-19 allows the diagnosis of an individual, but also allows us to track the progress of the epidemic.  Testing has been undertaken in two ‘pillars’:

    • Pillar 1: swab testing in Public Health England (PHE) labs and NHS hospitals for those with a clinical need, and health and care workers
    • Pillar 2: swab testing for the wider population, as set out in government guidance

Pillar 1 testing has been undertaken since very early in the epidemic, whereas pillar 2 testing was introduced gradually from mid-April.  The chart below tracks pillar 1 and pillar 2 confirmed cases, for Blackpool residents over time.  

Blackpool - COVID-19 Daily lab-confirmed cases to 25 October 2020

Pillar 1&2 cases 25 Oct
Source: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk
 
    • To date (26 October 2020) there have been 3,192 confirmed cases in Blackpool since the outbreak began.
    • This is roughly equal to 23 people out of every 1,000 that live in the town.
    • In the 7 days to the 21 October, 675 residents tested positive for COVID-19, which represents a weekly rate of 484.1 per 100,000 residents.
    • In the week ending 21 October, 12.1% of tests taken by residents in Blackpool were positive.

Blackpool data

Each week Public Health England publishes the number of positive cases of COVID-19 recorded in each middle super output areas (MSOAs). Where the number of cases are below 3, these have been suppressed to maintain confidentiality.

View the latest week's count for your MSOA (enter your postcode)

The number of confirmed cases each day, across the UK, is now increasing exponentially. The map below shows the highest rates across the North West and increasing rates across the rest of the country. 

Weekly rate of COVID-19 cases per 100,000 population, tested under Pillar 1 and 2, by upper-tier local authority,  12 - 18 October 2020

Pillar 1&2 Map 12-18 Oct
Source: Public Health England - National COVID-19 surveillance reports
 

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Infection Survey pilot

COVID-19 can present as a mild illness in many people and can be totally asymptomatic in others.  This means that many people who have COVID-19 will not be tested for the virus, and therefore testing cannot give us a complete picture of what is happening.  The Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the University of Oxford are conducting the Coronavirus Infection Survey Pilot to assess the incidence (the number of new cases per week) and the prevalence (the number of people who have the virus at any one time) of COVID-19, as well as to gain further insight into what factors influence catching the virus. 

    • Prevalence: An estimated 433,300 people (95% credible interval: 407,500 to 459,300) within the community population in England had COVID-19 during the most recent week, from 10 - 16 October 2020, equating to around 1 in 130 individuals.

The charts below present estimates of infection rates over time. The estimate shows the number of infections has continued to increase rapidly in recent weeks.

There has been growth in COVID-19 infection rates in all age groups over the past two weeks including those aged over 70 years, with the current rates highest in older teenagers and young adults.

The highest COVID-19 infection rates continue to be seen in the North West, Yorkshire and The Humber, and the North East.

Estimated percentage of the population in England testing positive on nose and throat swabs for the coronavirus (COVID-19) daily

Estimated % +ive to 16 Oct
Source: ONS - COVID-19 Infection Survey
Notes:
1.These statistics refer to infections reported in the community, by which is meant private households. These figures exclude infections reported in hospitals, care homes or other institutional settings.
2.It is important to note that the results for the most recent period are provisional, as the CIS is still receiving swab test results. This may result in further revisions to the figure.

R Value

The reproduction number (R) is the average number of secondary infections produced by 1 infected person.

An R number of 1 means that on average every person who is infected will infect 1 other person, meaning the total number of new infections is stable. If R is 2, on average, each infected person infects 2 more people. If R is 0.5 then on average for each 2 infected people, there will be only 1 new infection. If R is greater than 1 the epidemic is generally seen to be growing, if R is less than 1 the epidemic is shrinking.

R is not the only important measure of the epidemic. R indicates whether the epidemic is getting bigger or smaller but not how large it is. The number of people currently infected with coronavirus (COVID-19) – and so able to pass it on – is very important. 

The R value cannot be measured or calculated directly but must be inferred from the trend observed in epidemiological data such as hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths. 

The estimated R values for areas with smaller populations are much less certain, as there is less information available to produce a model.  A number of models have been created to estimate an R value for the North West of England.  These models currently suggest the R value for the North West is similar to the value for the United Kingdom as a whole. 

Latest R number range for the UK -

Range for the UK                  1.2 - 1.4

 

 

 

 

Range for the North West  1.1 - 1.3

 

 

Last updated on Friday 23 October 2020

Growth Rate

The growth rate reflects how quickly the number of infections are changing day by day and it is an approximation of the change in number infections each day. If the growth rate is greater than zero (+ positive), then the disease will grow. If the growth rate is less than zero (- negative) then the disease will shrink.

The size of the growth rate indicates the speed of change. A growth rate of +5% will grow faster than one with a growth rate of +1%. Likewise, a disease with a growth rate of -4% will be shrinking faster than a disease with growth rate of -1%.

Latest growth rates (percentage per day)

Range for the UK                        +3 to +6             

 

 

Range for the North West        +2 to +5 

 

 

Last updated on Friday 23 October 2020

For further information, please see The R number and growth rate in the UK