Home > Blackpool Profile > Population

Population

Last Modified 11/07/2018 15:46:25 Share this page

Population Estimates

The resident population of Blackpool is approximately 140,000. Mid 2017 population estimates (Figure 1) illustrates that older people (65 years plus) account for a greater proportion of Blackpool's resident population than observed at national level.

Figure 1: 2017  Population - Males and Females, All ages, 0-14 years and 65 and over
 Total population Males  Females  Age 0-14 years  Age 65 and over  
   No. No.  % No.  No.  No. 
 England 55,619,430 27,481,053 49.4%  28,138,377 50.6%  10,048,364 18.1%  10,030,511 18.0% 
 Blackpool  139,870 69,146 49.4%   70,724 50.6%   24,232 17.3%   28,544 22.4% 
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2017

Figure 2 gives Blackpool population estimates by males and females and by 5 year age group.  People aged 45-54 make up the largest age group with 15% of the population. Just over a fifth (22.8%) of Blackpools population is aged under 20 and less than 10% are aged over 75.

Figure 2: 2017 mid-year population estimates by males, females and five year age group - Blackpool
 MalesFemalesPersons 
All Ages 69,146 70,724 139,870  
0-4 4,337 4,148 8,485 6.1%
5-9 4,155 4,041 8,196 5.9%
10-14 3,844 3,707 7,551 5.4%
15-19 3,806 3,790 7,596 5.4%
20-24 4,043 3,939 7,982 5.7%
25-29 4,506 4,512 9,018 6.4%
30-34 4,195 4,085 8,280 5.9%
35-39 3,770 3,796 7,566 5.4%
40-44 3,792 3,885 7,677 5.5%
45-49 5,046 5,091 10,137 7.2%
50-54 5,512 5,389 10,901 7.8%
55-59 4,991 4,766 9,757 7.0%
60-64 4,127 4,053 8,180 5.8%
65-69 3,944 4,131 8,075 5.8%
70-74 3,674 3,796 7,470 5.3%
75-79 2,491 2,880 5,371 3.8%
80-84 1,631 2,302 3,933 2.8%
85-89 895 1,443 2,338 1.7%
90+ 387 970 1,357 1.0%
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2017

Population Pyramid

Blackpool's population pyramid (Figure 3) displays a higher proportion than England of people over 45 years of age, and a much lower proportion in ages younger than 45. The age bands 20-44, in particular, have a considerably lower proportion than England. Blackpool reflects England's higher proportion of females in the older age bands than males.

Figure 3: Population Pyramid (Mid 2017 Estimated Resident Population) - Blackpool

Blackpool population pyramid mid year 2017
Source: ONS mid-year population estimates, 2017

Population Projections

Projections of the population of Blackpool indicate that the number of residents over 65 will show a considerable increase within the next 25 years, far in excess of the levels of increase shown in all other age bands (Figure 4). The over 65 population is projected to rise by 24% from 28,500 in 2016 to 35,400 2041 and will then make up over a quarter (26%) of Blackpools total population.

The total population of Blackpool is projected to fall very gradually in the long term, going from 140,000 in 2016 to 136,500 by 2041 (ONS mid-2016 based population estimates). The 45-64 year old population shows the greatest decrease over time.

Figure 4: 2016-based Subnational Population Projections for Blackpool

Source:  ONS 2016-based subnational population projections

There are four factors that affect population change: birth rate, death rate, immigration and emigration. The difference between the number of births and the number of deaths is the net change in population due to natural change. Figure 5 displays projected changes in Blackpool's population from natural change, immigration and emigration. The main contributory factor in the initial fall in population is that natural change is static with more deaths than births in the town, while immigration is also falling. The levelling off in the late 2020's is due to immigration increasing once again rather than increasing natural change.

Figure 5: Projected Components of Population Change - Blackpool

components of pop change 2016-2041
Source: ONS 2016-based subnational population projections

Population Turnover

Transience has been an identified issue in Blackpool for a long time. A review has been undertaken to identify whether there is a reliable quantitative source of information that can help us understand this issue.

Population turnover statistics identify that some areas in Blackpool have extremely high levels of population inflow and outflow. The Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA) which contains South Beach has a population inflow rate of 193 per 1000 population, which is the 65th highest inflow rate of the 7,194 MSOAs in England1.

Further analysis of GP Register data suggests a small number of people move more than 3 times a year (less than 2%), and that the age group most likely to move at least once is young people aged 20-29.

Figure 6 summarises the inflows and outflows in Blackpool over the course of a single year.

Figure 6: Population inflows and outflows in Blackpool - Mid-year 2016 to 2017 Change

Popb change 2016-2017
 

Geo-demographic Segmentation

MOSAIC is a demographic profiling tool that is produced by Experian. MOSAIC categorises all households and postcodes into 'segments'. Each segment shares a set of statistically similar behaviours, interests or demographics. MOSAIC is especially useful for providing insight into the local population, service users and neighbourhoods and can be used to support sophisticated service development - right through from initial feasibility research into service design and marketing.

The most recent version of MOSAIC was released in 2017. Households are categorised by 15 broad MOSAIC segments called 'groups'. These groups can be further broken down into 66 detailed MOSAIC segments called 'types'. Each group or type has an associated name and a detailed statistical profile. It is these profiles that paint a rich picture of the segments and provide insight into the local population.

Clearly not every one of the country's postcodes/households matches exactly to just one of the 66 different Mosaic types. These descriptions are what sociologists describe as 'ideal types', pure examples to which individual cases approximate only with various degrees of exactness. They focus on the statistical bias of a type of neighbourhood, on the demographic categories which are more numerous there than elsewhere in the country and which give the neighbourhood its distinctive character. In addition, because the boundaries of postcodes and census output areas do not exactly match boundaries in housing type, it is inevitable that addresses close to boundaries may in certain cases not appear to have been allocated to the most suitable category. There are cases too, where the same types of neighbourhood will contain people of similar character and behaviour but living in very different types of accommodation according to where in the country they may live2.

The following are the total count and percentage of households within each high level mosaic group. A large majority of Blackpool households fall into 5 Groups; F, H, K, L and N representing 74% of all households in the town.

Figure 7: Percentage of households in each Mosaic group - Blackpool

Bpl HH by Mosaic Group 2017
Source: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2017

The bar chart below shows how households in each area are categorised. Blackpool has a bias toward the K to O segments with higher percentages of households in these groups.

Figure 8: Percentage of households in Mosaic groups - comparison of Blackpool, the Fylde Coast and the UK

HH by Group chart UK Bpl FC comparison
Source: Experian - Mosaic Public Sector 2017

Each Blackpool postcode has been designated a Mosaic group that is most representative of the households it contains. This is visually represented in Figure 9.

Figure 9: Map of Mosaic Groups in Blackpool

MOSAIC groups 2017
Source: Experian, Mosaic Public Sector 2017

Mosaic further divides groups into 66 types to allow a more in-depth understanding of the geo-demographic makeup of the residents of Blackpool. Figure 10 displays the mosaic types in Blackpool and the number and proportion of Blackpool households in each.

Figure 10: Households by Mosaic Type in Blackpool

Bpl HH by Mosaic Type 2017
Source: Mosaic Public Sector 2017

Figure 11 displays the key attributes for the 5 biggest Mosaic Types in Blackpool which represent 47% of all households

Figure 11: Top 5 Mosaic Types in NHS Blackpool

Type L50: Renting a Room - Transient renters of low cost accommodation often within subdivided older properties
Pop Summary - Figure 10 - L50
  • Singles and homesharers
  • Short term private renters
  • Low rent accommodation
  • Often Victorian terraces
  • Most likely to get a lift to work
  • Low wage occupations

Type K47: Offspring Overspill - Lower income owners whose adult children are still striving to gain independence meaning space is limited

K47 Offspring Overspill

  • Pre-retirement
  • Families with adult children
  • Individual incomes not high
  • Better off if children are contributing
  • Own 3 bed semis and terraces
  • Bills can become a struggle

Type M54: Childcare Squeeze - Younger families with children who own a budget home and are striving to cover all expenses
Pop Summary - Figure 10 - M54

  • Married or cohabiting couples
  • Likely to have pre-school children
  • Outgoings high in proportion to income
  • Own low value homes
  • Both parents working
  • Unsecured personal loans

Type N57: Seasoned Survivors - Deep-rooted single elderly owners of low value properties whose modest home equity provides some security
Pop Summary - Figure 10 - N57

  • Very elderly
  • Most are living alone
  • Longest length of residence (29 years)
  • Modest income
  • Own mostly 2 or 3 bed terraces
  • Retired from routine / semi-skilled jobs

Type F23: Solo Retirees - Senior singles whose reduced incomes are satisfactory in their affordable but pleasant owned homes

F23 Solo Retirees

  • Elderly singles
  • Small private pension
  • Long length of residence
  • Own a suburban semi or terrace
  • Keep bills down by turning things off
  • Don't like new technology

 


[1] Source: ONS Neighbourhood Statistics, Population Turnover 2009-2010

[2] Experian, 2017